What Was the U.K. GDP Then?

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The data published here for the years after 1948 are published by the UK Office of National Statistics. Each year this office publishes the latest update of these data in the United Kingdom National Accounts, The Blue Book. It is surprising that each year they have a new value for years past and this is not just because they are using a different “base year.” They have continuously revised the nominal observations as well. For a complete discussion of this, see How the Post War United Kingdom's Annual Estimates of GDP Have Changed.

The revisions in the series published in 2012 were very large and not explained well and so we decided to not use them. Since then there have been two more revisions, the latest in October 2014. With the latest version there also was an announcement that "A production error has been identified in the processing of estimates of pre-1997 GDP and some components." The correction reduced the variance in the ONS series between what we use and the revisons, but it is still large.

To download the ONS published real and nominal GDP series from 2005, 2011, 2012 and two versions from 2014 go to Data Sets. Until this is resolved, we will use the same data for 1948 to the present that was published in 2011 and extrapolate only the 2011 to 2013 observations base on the October 2014 observations.


Lawrence H. Officer and Samuel H. Williamson, "What Was the U.K. GDP Then?" MeasuringWorth
URL: http://www.measuringworth.com/ukgdp/

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